Israel at a Perilous Crossroads
Will the government collapse?
This week Israel’s Channel 13 News reported a poll showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Likud party, and his right-wing coalition in an incredible nosedive.
When this new government took office last December 29, Likud had 32 seats and the coalition as a whole had a solid 64-seat majority in Israel’s 120-seat Knesset. Not quite three and a half months later, Likud is all the way down to 20 and the coalition as a whole is down to a very paltry 46.
This should at least put paid to the many who claim that the current domestic strife in Israel is just being caused by noisy, spoiled leftists who can’t accept having lost the election. News flash: Likud voters don’t need “leftists” to tell them something’s wrong and are not influenced by them.
Indeed, while all the parties in the governing coalition have lost seats in this poll, Likud is the only one to have lost them drastically. And the poll also reveals where most of the Likud voters have gone: to former chief of staff and defense minister Benny Gantz’s centrist—some would say center-right—National Union party, which, in this poll, skyrockets from 12 (as of last December) to 29 seats.
So why, after three months, are so many Likud voters—not half, but more than a third—disaffected?
For one thing, polls have been showing for months that a clear majority of all Israelis reject the government’s “judicial overhaul”—actually a transparent attempt to capsize the Israeli Supreme Court—and demand either talks on a compromise with the opposition or scrapping the “overhaul” altogether.
But such talks are now, finally, being held, and while many are pessimistic about them, the judicial-overhaul issue doesn’t explain the current sharp disaffection among Likud and some other coalition voters.
More to the point is a current security imbroglio that sees Israel under attack literally from all sides, including, since last week: rocket fire from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, with 34 rockets from Lebanon last Thursday night; a suspected Iranian drone launch from Syria; clashes, orchestrated by Hamas, on the tinderbox known as the Temple Mount; a shooting attack in the Jordan Valley that killed two Israeli sisters and their mother; and a ramming attack in Tel Aviv that killed an Italian tourist and wounded seven other tourists.
All of it recalls the dire warning by current defense minister Yoav Galant last March 25, when he said that Israel was facing “great threats—both near and far,” and that the judicial-overhaul process had to be paused because of the damage it was causing to Israeli morale and unity. To many Israelis’ outrage, for that blunt statement of truth Galant was seemingly fired twenty-four hours later by Netanyahu; on Monday evening, after two weeks of limbo, Netanyahu finally affirmed that Galant will remain in his post.
Chagrin among Likud and other right-wing voters is heightened by the fact that since the new government took office—despite boastful promises especially by its far-right elements—19 people have been killed in terror attacks in three and a half months. Under the previous Bennett-Lapid unity government—which the right-wing opposition attacked fiercely for supposed softness on security—36 were killed in a year and a half.
Where does all that leave us?
Under one positive scenario, the talks on a compromise on the judicial overhaul succeed; Israel regains its unity and morale, its badly frayed diplomatic ties with the Biden administration and pragmatic Arab countries recover, and Israel faces its security challenges with renewed strength.
Under another positive scenario, the current deeply problematic government, with its obstreperous far-right elements, collapses—possibly because of those elements’ inability to accept a successful compromise in the talks—and a more balanced, rational, capable government emerges from elections.
Under a negative scenario, the talks fail; the domestic strife continues, worsens, and reaches crisis proportions; and Israel’s enemies are emboldened as never before.
Forming the backdrop to all this is Israel’s succession of April holidays: the soon-to-end, weeklong Passover; Holocaust Remembrance Day (this year, April 18); Remembrance Day for Fallen Soldiers (April 25); and Independence Day (April 26). It can be hoped that our deep awareness of a legacy of disasters and triumphs will lead us to the right decisions.
Normally I would want to say that these polls are a good thing, in that they provide hope to those in the opposition. But I am sure that we both agree that in Israel these spot polls can create a dynamic that can usher in regime change. In that sense, they are mini elections. Privately run by polling companies and the mainstream anti-Bibi media, above reproach because, well, Science.
It doesn't seem to me that the "far-right" (traditionally Jewish) elements will bolt this time. Still the opposition can base its hope on the perennial defectors: those of the Likud. And for good reason. From the great Arik Sharon, all the way through to Liberman and Saar, there is always a Likudnik ready to betray the very principles the professing of which brought him or her to power. I'm not saying that bitterly. It is what it is. Ideology is not what it used to be.
There could easily be room for compromise on the Supreme Court issue. I remind you that many of the main opposition leaders, including Lapid, are on record supporting reform as recently as a year ago. Let's call what they want a "reigning-in" of the SC. Between "capsizing" the Court and reigning it in, a compromise can be found.
The problem is that there is blood in the water: that poll you mention can lead the opposition to believe that this government can be overthrown. If that is the case, then there is no need for them to compromise. Lapid has said as much. The Likud, realizing that the whole issue was handled in a disastrous manner will leave it on the shelf for now. But the opposition is all in on regime change, and in doing so are guaranteeing that the next time the reform is advanced, it will be in its original form.
I was disappointed by your bringing into the discussion the algorithm of Jewish murders. 36 murders in a year and a half, against 10 in three months. Each of them an entire world, extinguished. Which side wins? I know you feel the pain as I do. I think you could have left this out without weakening the points you are trying to get across.
Your scenarios seem to sum up the possibilities of the way forward. I will add one to the list.
No compromise on SC reform. Left on the shelf for now. No betrayals in the Likud. The six-front war which seems inevitable now will occur. The Jews prevail, stronger than ever. Then back to politics as usual.